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Then change in turnover equals the continuing group's B-minus-A turnover, plus B-only turnover, minus A-only turnover. \u201cB only\u201d means absent in A, not first-ever on Arc. Add unknown-address turnover as its own change term if attribution is incomplete.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Split addresses into those active in both periods, B only, and A only. Then change in turnover equals the continuing group's B-minus-A turnover, plus B-only turnover, minus A-only turnover. \u201cB only\u201d means absent in A, not first-ever on Arc. Add unknown-address turnover as its own change term if attribution is incomplete.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/hour-change.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Adjacent complete hours; counts and arithmetic exact within the saved set.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Adjacent complete hours; counts and arithmetic exact within the saved set.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/hour-change.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q01b", "name": "Activity intensity.", "definition": "Use one fixed attributed swap set with exactly one trader address per swap. Let W be distinct trader addresses, A distinct address\u2013transaction pairs, S swaps and V supported-quote turnover. Report W, A/W, S/A and V/S; require V = W \u00d7 (A/W) \u00d7 (S/A) \u00d7 (V/S). A/W is mean transactions per address; S/A is mean swaps per address\u2013transaction pair. Report chain transaction count separately. It can replace A only after proving exactly one trader per transaction. Unknown or multiple-trader swap records stay outside the identity and retain separate counts and measurable turnover. Do not duplicate a swap across traders. Zero denominators give an unavailable rate. Show medians separately; they cannot replace means in this identity.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Use one fixed attributed swap set with exactly one trader address per swap. Let W be distinct trader addresses, A distinct address\u2013transaction pairs, S swaps and V supported-quote turnover. Report W, A/W, S/A and V/S; require V = W \u00d7 (A/W) \u00d7 (S/A) \u00d7 (V/S). A/W is mean transactions per address; S/A is mean swaps per address\u2013transaction pair. Report chain transaction count separately. It can replace A only after proving exactly one trader per transaction. Unknown or multiple-trader swap records stay outside the identity and retain separate counts and measurable turnover. Do not duplicate a swap across traders. Zero denominators give an unavailable rate. Show medians separately; they cannot replace means in this identity.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/intensity.json", "data/analysis/transaction-routing.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/intensity.sql", "queries/local/transaction-routing.sql" ], "resultScope": "All swaps have one trader; address\u2013transaction pairs equal transaction count here.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; All swaps have one trader; address\u2013transaction pairs equal transaction count here.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/intensity.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/transaction-routing.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q01c", "name": "Pool turnover versus trader exchange.", "definition": "Show the share of transactions with several swaps. Where full routes and net token changes are known, compare summed pool turnover with one quote-side trader exchange per route. Keep incomplete or non-comparable routes out of the ratio and report their count.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show the share of transactions with several swaps. Where full routes and net token changes are known, compare summed pool turnover with one quote-side trader exchange per route. Keep incomplete or non-comparable routes out of the ratio and report their count.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/transaction-routing.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/transaction-routing.sql" ], "resultScope": "Multi-execution counts measured. Full route net exchanges not reconstructed.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Multi-execution counts measured. Full route net exchanges not reconstructed.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/transaction-routing.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q02a", "name": "Largest-token exclusion.", "definition": "Recalculate each platform's turnover and active addresses after removing swaps touching its top token. Show the removed share and rank change. Keep the full total as the main result.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Recalculate each platform's turnover and active addresses after removing swaps touching its top token. Show the removed share and rank change. Keep the full total as the main result.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/largest-token-exclusion.json", "data/analysis/origin-turnover.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/origin-turnover.sql" ], "resultScope": "Mapped token sets only; excludes every swap touching the selected token.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Mapped token sets only; excludes every swap touching the selected token.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/largest-token-exclusion.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/origin-turnover.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q02b", "name": "Largest-address exclusion.", "definition": "Repeat for the top address and top ten addresses, using sets defined from the same whole-window result. Recount distinct addresses after filtering; do not subtract overlapping counts.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Repeat for the top address and top ten addresses, using sets defined from the same whole-window result. Recount distinct addresses after filtering; do not subtract overlapping counts.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/origin-wallet-stress.json", "data/analysis/trader-summary.json", "data/analysis/pool-concentration.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/pool-concentration.sql" ], "resultScope": "Exclusive address/pool groups; addresses are not people.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Exclusive address/pool groups; addresses are not people.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/origin-wallet-stress.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/trader-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/pool-concentration.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q02c", "name": "Breadth.", "definition": "Show the number of tokens with 1+, 5+ and 20+ observed non-creator buyer addresses in their first hour, plus their shares of all eligible launched tokens. These are descriptive thresholds, not proof of independent demand.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show the number of tokens with 1+, 5+ and 20+ observed non-creator buyer addresses in their first hour, plus their shares of all eligible launched tokens. These are descriptive thresholds, not proof of independent demand.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Unknown-creator tokens remain outside non-creator measures; quiet means no observed cube record.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Unknown-creator tokens remain outside non-creator measures; quiet means no observed cube record.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q02d", "name": "Concentration-equivalent count.", "definition": "In an appendix, calculate 1 / sum(squared turnover shares) for exclusive wallet or pool groups. One dominant group gives a value near one; equal shares across n groups give n. Do not describe this as an estimate of human users.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "In an appendix, calculate 1 / sum(squared turnover shares) for exclusive wallet or pool groups. One dominant group gives a value near one; equal shares across n groups give n. Do not describe this as an estimate of human users.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/origin-wallet-stress.json", "data/analysis/trader-summary.json", "data/analysis/pool-concentration.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/pool-concentration.sql" ], "resultScope": "Exclusive address/pool groups; addresses are not people.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Exclusive address/pool groups; addresses are not people.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/origin-wallet-stress.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/trader-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/pool-concentration.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q03a", "name": "Opening versus later turnover.", "definition": "Separate the launch transaction, later transactions in the launch block, and subsequent blocks. Show counts, quote turnover and creator-address shares.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Separate the launch transaction, later transactions in the launch block, and subsequent blocks. Show counts, quote turnover and creator-address shares.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-phase-trading.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/launch-phase-trading.sql" ], "resultScope": "New launches only; launch transaction and later blocks kept separate.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; New launches only; launch transaction and later blocks kept separate.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-phase-trading.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q03b", "name": "First-hour persistence.", "definition": "Among tokens with a full hour of coverage, compare minutes [0, 15) with [45, 60). Show turnover, buyer addresses and transaction counts for each. Report change only when the opening denominator is positive; put tokens with no opening activity in a separate group.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Among tokens with a full hour of coverage, compare minutes [0, 15) with [45, 60). Show turnover, buyer addresses and transaction counts for each. Report change only when the opening denominator is positive; put tokens with no opening activity in a separate group.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/first-hour-tokens.json", "data/analysis/launch-persistence-detail.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/first-hour-tokens.sql", "queries/local/launch-persistence-detail.sql" ], "resultScope": "Complete 60-minute cohorts; opening and late values retained, zero opening denominator has no rate.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete 60-minute cohorts; opening and late values retained, zero opening denominator has no rate.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/first-hour-tokens.csv.gz", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-persistence-detail.csv.gz" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q03c", "name": "Quiet-period share.", "definition": "For eligible tokens, show the share with no decoded trade in [45, 60), and the share with no observed non-creator buyer in that interval. Do not call either group dead or unsellable.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For eligible tokens, show the share with no decoded trade in [45, 60), and the share with no observed non-creator buyer in that interval. Do not call either group dead or unsellable.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Unknown-creator tokens remain outside non-creator measures; quiet means no observed cube record.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Unknown-creator tokens remain outside non-creator measures; quiet means no observed cube record.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q03d", "name": "Demand after launch.", "definition": "Show median and percentile time from verified launch to the first observed buyer address other than the creator. Include tokens without a qualifying buyer in the \u201cnot observed by horizon\u201d count, rather than dropping them from the results.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show median and percentile time from verified launch to the first observed buyer address other than the creator. Include tokens without a qualifying buyer in the \u201cnot observed by horizon\u201d count, rather than dropping them from the results.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Unknown-creator tokens remain outside non-creator measures; quiet means no observed cube record.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Unknown-creator tokens remain outside non-creator measures; quiet means no observed cube record.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q04a", "name": "Launch funnel.", "definition": "For verified launches with a complete 60-minute horizon, count tokens with a verified pool, then any observed non-creator buyer, then five such buyer addresses, then both non-creator buying and selling. For a true funnel, make each stage a subset of the previous one. Show both the share of all launches and the share reaching the prior stage.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For verified launches with a complete 60-minute horizon, count tokens with a verified pool, then any observed non-creator buyer, then five such buyer addresses, then both non-creator buying and selling. For a true funnel, make each stage a subset of the previous one. Show both the share of all launches and the share reaching the prior stage.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json", "data/analysis/funnel-stage-times.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/funnel-stage-times.sql" ], "resultScope": "Nested known-creator funnel; time to first/fifth buyer measured, seller-stage timing not supplied.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Nested known-creator funnel; time to first/fifth buyer measured, seller-stage timing not supplied.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/funnel-stage-times.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q04b", "name": "Time to each stage.", "definition": "Give median and percentile elapsed time among tokens reaching the stage, with the unreached count beside it. \u201cNot reached in one hour\u201d does not mean never reached.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Give median and percentile elapsed time among tokens reaching the stage, with the unreached count beside it. \u201cNot reached in one hour\u201d does not mean never reached.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json", "data/analysis/funnel-stage-times.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/funnel-stage-times.sql" ], "resultScope": "Nested known-creator funnel; time to first/fifth buyer measured, seller-stage timing not supplied.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Nested known-creator funnel; time to first/fifth buyer measured, seller-stage timing not supplied.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/funnel-stage-times.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q04c", "name": "Launch cost and demand.", "definition": "Where fees are known, show creator-paid launch-transaction costs versus later non-creator trading activity. A comparison of cost and turnover is not creator profit.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Where fees are known, show creator-paid launch-transaction costs versus later non-creator trading activity. A comparison of cost and turnover is not creator profit.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-cost-demand.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/launch-cost-demand.sql" ], "resultScope": "Network fee for launch transaction known; payer may differ from creator; pool/hook fees not included.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Network fee for launch transaction known; payer may differ from creator; pool/hook fees not included.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cost-demand.csv.gz" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q05a", "name": "All verified tokens versus new launches.", "definition": "Publish whole-window activity for the full verified token registry separately from the new-launch cohort. Mark registry coverage limits.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Publish whole-window activity for the full verified token registry separately from the new-launch cohort. Mark registry coverage limits.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/origin-turnover.json", "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json", "data/analysis/largest-token-exclusion.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/origin-turnover.sql" ], "resultScope": "Saved mapped token sets, not all platform history; separate volume, median and breadth comparisons.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Saved mapped token sets, not all platform history; separate volume, median and breadth comparisons.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/origin-turnover.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/largest-token-exclusion.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q05b", "name": "Equal-age token outcomes.", "definition": "For complete first-hour cohorts, show median, 25th and 75th percentiles, zero-trade share, and the full distribution of quote turnover and non-creator buyers. Include zeros where data coverage is sound.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For complete first-hour cohorts, show median, 25th and 75th percentiles, zero-trade share, and the full distribution of quote turnover and non-creator buyers. Include zeros where data coverage is sound.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/first-hour-tokens.json", "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/first-hour-tokens.sql" ], "resultScope": "Complete cohorts with zeros; non-creator distribution can be read only for known-creator tokens.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete cohorts with zeros; non-creator distribution can be read only for known-creator tokens.", "eligibleCounts": { "first_hour_tokens": 25919, "by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 30, "Ayoo": 9, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 62, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 2, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 4, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 10, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 73, "Unknown b021": 22081, "Unknown bbf8": 2, "Unknown fa59": 7, "Warp": 81, "o1": 848 }, "known_creator_by_brand": { "ACTFUN": 15, "Aka": 17, "ArcPad": 54, "ArcToolsPad": 1, "Archemist": 10, "Argus": 0, "Ayoo": 0, "Bozo": 53, "Cusp": 2, "DYOR V3": 0, "Dagg": 3, "Ellipse V3": 0, "Flipt": 204, "Klik": 0, "Long": 85, "Minara": 1321, "PEGD": 0, "RadarDEX": 175, "Sharc": 24, "Tolly": 735, "UBI": 11, "Unknown 58e5": 0, "Unknown b021": 0, "Unknown bbf8": 0, "Unknown fa59": 0, "Warp": 0, "o1": 0 } }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/first-hour-tokens.csv.gz", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q05c", "name": "Launch-time comparison.", "definition": "Compare platforms within shared launch-time buckets so that a market-wide busy hour does not silently favor one. Use 30-minute launch buckets by default; show eligible counts and keep sparse comparisons descriptive.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Compare platforms within shared launch-time buckets so that a market-wide busy hour does not silently favor one. Use 30-minute launch buckets by default; show eligible counts and keep sparse comparisons descriptive.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launch-time-outcomes.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Shared 30-minute launch buckets, sample counts retained; no causal or pooled adjusted rank.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Shared 30-minute launch buckets, sample counts retained; no causal or pooled adjusted rank.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-time-outcomes.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q05d", "name": "Typical result and reach.", "definition": "Present total turnover, median token turnover, launch-to-five-buyer conversion and first-hour persistence as separate ranks. Show sensitivity without the largest token. Do not combine them into an overall score without a stated weighting choice.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Present total turnover, median token turnover, launch-to-five-buyer conversion and first-hour persistence as separate ranks. Show sensitivity without the largest token. Do not combine them into an overall score without a stated weighting choice.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/origin-turnover.json", "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json", "data/analysis/largest-token-exclusion.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/origin-turnover.sql" ], "resultScope": "Saved mapped token sets, not all platform history; separate volume, median and breadth comparisons.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Saved mapped token sets, not all platform history; separate volume, median and breadth comparisons.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/origin-turnover.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/largest-token-exclusion.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q06a", "name": "Return within 15 or 60 minutes.", "definition": "Count a second successful trader transaction within the horizon after the first observed one. Use only addresses with the full horizon available. Multiple swaps in one transaction are one visit for this purpose.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Count a second successful trader transaction within the horizon after the first observed one. Use only addresses with the full horizon available. Multiple swaps in one transaction are one visit for this purpose.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/returns-summary.json", "data/analysis/trader-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Fixed follow-up, second transaction required; first observation is not first-ever use.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Fixed follow-up, second transaction required; first observation is not first-ever use.", "eligibleCounts": { "15_minutes": 60453, "30_minutes": 58527, "60_minutes": 55002, "120_minutes": 47475 }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/returns-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/trader-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q06b", "name": "Later-interval return.", "definition": "Separately measure a trade in [15, 30) and [30, 60) minutes after first observation. This distinguishes immediate repeats from activity that lasts into a later interval.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Separately measure a trade in [15, 30) and [30, 60) minutes after first observation. This distinguishes immediate repeats from activity that lasts into a later interval.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/returns-summary.json", "data/analysis/trader-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Fixed follow-up, second transaction required; first observation is not first-ever use.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Fixed follow-up, second transaction required; first observation is not first-ever use.", "eligibleCounts": { "15_minutes": 60453, "30_minutes": 58527, "60_minutes": 55002, "120_minutes": 47475 }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/returns-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/trader-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q06c", "name": "Time to second transaction.", "definition": "Show the distribution among returners, with non-returners as a separate count. Report whole-window one-time activity independently from these equal-opportunity rates.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show the distribution among returners, with non-returners as a separate count. Report whole-window one-time activity independently from these equal-opportunity rates.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/returns-summary.json", "data/analysis/trader-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Fixed follow-up, second transaction required; first observation is not first-ever use.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Fixed follow-up, second transaction required; first observation is not first-ever use.", "eligibleCounts": { "15_minutes": 60453, "30_minutes": 58527, "60_minutes": 55002, "120_minutes": 47475 }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/returns-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/trader-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q06d", "name": "Same token or exploration.", "definition": "Among eligible returners, split the next transaction into same-token, different-token, mixed or unresolved. Then show same-launchpad versus another verified launchpad without adding overlapping audiences.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Among eligible returners, split the next transaction into same-token, different-token, mixed or unresolved. Then show same-launchpad versus another verified launchpad without adding overlapping audiences.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/return-exploration.json", "data/analysis/platform-path-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/return-exploration.sql" ], "resultScope": "Base-token next-visit split measured; launchpad path uses its separate known-platform cohort.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Base-token next-visit split measured; launchpad path uses its separate known-platform cohort.", "eligibleCounts": { "15_minutes": 60453, "30_minutes": 58527, "60_minutes": 55002, "120_minutes": 47475 }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/return-exploration.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/platform-path-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q07a", "name": "Audience overlap.", "definition": "Show addresses using both A and B divided by those using A, and separately divided by the union of A and B. The first is directional reach; the second is symmetric overlap.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show addresses using both A and B divided by those using A, and separately divided by the union of A and B. The first is directional reach; the second is symmetric overlap.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/launchpad-audience-overlap.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Mapped token sets only; directional and union-denominator overlap supplied.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Mapped token sets only; directional and union-denominator overlap supplied.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launchpad-audience-overlap.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q07b", "name": "Next-platform path.", "definition": "From the first unambiguous observed visit to a platform, find the next different verified platform visited within 60 minutes. Use only addresses with full follow-up. Show destination shares with no observed move and ambiguous paths as explicit outcomes.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "From the first unambiguous observed visit to a platform, find the next different verified platform visited within 60 minutes. Use only addresses with full follow-up. Show destination shares with no observed move and ambiguous paths as explicit outcomes.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/platform-path-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Unambiguous known-platform visits; unknown/unattributed activity outside path definition.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Unambiguous known-platform visits; unknown/unattributed activity outside path definition.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/platform-path-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q07c", "name": "Activity after the move.", "definition": "Compare the address's next-30-minute activity at its original and new platforms only when a full post-move horizon is available. Report within-address change and eligible counts.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Compare the address's next-30-minute activity at its original and new platforms only when a full post-move horizon is available. Report within-address change and eligible counts.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/post-move-address-values.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Paired destination-minus-source USDC turnover in the same next 30 minutes. Only executions assigned to that source count; unrelated route turnover and transactions touching several named sources are excluded. Time windows can overlap; not a causal effect.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Paired destination-minus-source USDC turnover in the same next 30 minutes. Only executions assigned to that source count; unrelated route turnover and transactions touching several named sources are excluded. Time windows can overlap; not a causal effect.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/post-move-address-values.csv.gz" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q08a", "name": "Creator-address activity.", "definition": "Measure creator-address buys, sells and quote cash flow after launch, plus time to its first sale and creator share of the token's observed sell volume. Keep transfers and fee receipts separate.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Measure creator-address buys, sells and quote cash flow after launch, plus time to its first sale and creator share of the token's observed sell volume. Keep transfers and fee receipts separate.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/creator-trading.json", "data/analysis/creator-cash-flow.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/creator-trading.sql", "queries/local/creator-cash-flow.sql" ], "resultScope": "Known creator address only; quoted cash flow excludes transfers, starting inventory and fee income.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Known creator address only; quoted cash flow excludes transfers, starting inventory and fee income.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/creator-trading.csv.gz", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/creator-cash-flow.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q08b", "name": "Entry-time groups.", "definition": "Group first observed purchases per address/token into [0, 1), [1, 5), [5, 15) and 15+ minutes after launch. Compare trade size, later selling and repeat use over a fixed 30-minute horizon after entry. Use groups from entry data, not from later profit.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Group first observed purchases per address/token into [0, 1), [1, 5), [5, 15) and 15+ minutes after launch. Compare trade size, later selling and repeat use over a fixed 30-minute horizon after entry. Use groups from entry data, not from later profit.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/entry-summary.json", "data/analysis/entry-cohorts.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Fixed 30-minute follow-up; pooled groups have different token mixes. No early-entry advantage inferred.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Fixed 30-minute follow-up; pooled groups have different token mixes. No early-entry advantage inferred.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/entry-summary.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/entry-cohorts.csv.gz" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q08c", "name": "Entry-linked outcome.", "definition": "Where fresh price marks exist, compare entry execution price with a 30-minute reference mark. Label this a price change, not realized profit. Where costs and inventory are complete, separately compare realized outcomes and remaining inventory at the same horizon.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Where fresh price marks exist, compare entry execution price with a 30-minute reference mark. Label this a price change, not realized profit. Where costs and inventory are complete, separately compare realized outcomes and remaining inventory at the same horizon.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Pool price paths are available, but entry-specific fresh marks and verified cost/inventory are not.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Pool price paths are available, but entry-specific fresh marks and verified cost/inventory are not.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q08d", "name": "Creator token movements.", "definition": "Show verified allocations, retained balances, transfers and sales, with destination categories supported by evidence. A transfer to another address is not itself a sale.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show verified allocations, retained balances, transfers and sales, with destination categories supported by evidence. A transfer to another address is not itself a sale.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q09a", "name": "Observed selling after buying.", "definition": "Among address/token first-observed purchase cohorts with complete 15- and 60-minute horizons, show the share with a later sell transaction and time to first sale. Exclude same-transaction routing from this measure. This does not prove that the sold inventory came from the observed purchase.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Among address/token first-observed purchase cohorts with complete 15- and 60-minute horizons, show the share with a later sell transaction and time to first sale. Exclude same-transaction routing from this measure. This does not prove that the sold inventory came from the observed purchase.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Later sell transaction, not matched inventory. Buy/sell in the first transaction does not count as a later sale.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Later sell transaction, not matched inventory. Buy/sell in the first transaction does not count as a later sale.", "eligibleCounts": { "15_minutes": 332451, "60_minutes": 298925 }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q09b", "name": "Markets with two-way activity.", "definition": "Show tokens with observed non-creator buyers and sellers, by horizon, and the number of seller addresses. A token with no sales is not automatically impossible to sell.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show tokens with observed non-creator buyers and sellers, by horizon, and the number of seller addresses. A token with no sales is not automatically impossible to sell.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/first-hour-tokens.json", "data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/first-hour-tokens.sql" ], "resultScope": "First-hour known-creator buyer/seller counts; full all-platform curve trading unavailable.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; First-hour known-creator buyer/seller counts; full all-platform curve trading unavailable.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/first-hour-tokens.csv.gz", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/launch-cohort-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q09c", "name": "Matched-inventory exit.", "definition": "With known opening inventory and complete transfers, report the fraction of an observed purchase quantity sold by the horizon. Separate partial sales, full sales, transfers out and still-held quantities. Do not cap an unexplained ratio at 100%; resolve the inventory mismatch.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "With known opening inventory and complete transfers, report the fraction of an observed purchase quantity sold by the horizon. Separate partial sales, full sales, transfers out and still-held quantities. Do not cap an unexplained ratio at 100%; resolve the inventory mismatch.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q09d", "name": "Failed sell attempts.", "definition": "With reliable failed-call intent, show failed sells divided by classified sell attempts, failed-sell fees and later successful sells by the same address/token. Give the share of failed transactions whose intent is unknown. Do not infer attempts that never reached the chain.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "With reliable failed-call intent, show failed sells divided by classified sell attempts, failed-sell fees and later successful sells by the same address/token. Give the share of failed transactions whose intent is unknown. Do not infer attempts that never reached the chain.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/chain-common.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/chain-common.sql" ], "resultScope": "Failed transaction intent not decoded reliably; chain failure rate is not failed-sell rate.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Failed transaction intent not decoded reliably; chain failure rate is not failed-sell rate.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/chain-common.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q10a", "name": "Eligible outcome distribution.", "definition": "For inventory- and cost-verified closed positions, show median, percentiles, gains/losses and the share with positive net realized results. Give total eligible addresses and positions, excluded counts, remaining open inventory and eligible turnover share.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For inventory- and cost-verified closed positions, show median, percentiles, gains/losses and the share with positive net realized results. Give total eligible addresses and positions, excluded counts, remaining open inventory and eligible turnover share.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q10b", "name": "Gains and losses by address.", "definition": "Sum eligible realized position outcomes per address before calculating address win rates or concentration. Report the share of total positive gains captured by the top ten gaining addresses, and gross gains versus gross losses. Keep partial-wallet results labelled.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Sum eligible realized position outcomes per address before calculating address win rates or concentration. Report the share of total positive gains captured by the top ten gaining addresses, and gross gains versus gross losses. Keep partial-wallet results labelled.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q10c", "name": "Cost burden.", "definition": "Show network, trade, hook and other verified fees separately, with median and percentile total cost as a share of the supported transaction quote amount. If only network cost is known, name it that way. Never charge the same fee twice through both price and an added deduction.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show network, trade, hook and other verified fees separately, with median and percentile total cost as a share of the supported transaction quote amount. If only network cost is known, name it that way. Never charge the same fee twice through both price and an added deduction.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/network-trade-cost-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Network fee once per transaction. Ratio uses pool turnover, not reconstructed net exchange; tiny denominators can make it very large.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Network fee once per transaction. Ratio uses pool turnover, not reconstructed net exchange; tiny denominators can make it very large.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/network-trade-cost-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q10d", "name": "Fee recipient breakdown.", "definition": "Where recipient roles are verified, report paid fees to the platform, creators and liquidity providers. Keep accrued, paid and claimed amounts separate so a later claim is not counted as new fee income.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Where recipient roles are verified, report paid fees to the platform, creators and liquidity providers. Keep accrued, paid and claimed amounts separate so a later claim is not counted as new fee income.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/creator-cash-flow.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/creator-cash-flow.sql" ], "resultScope": "Paid, accrued and claimed platform/creator/liquidity fees not reconciled. Creator sales are not fee receipts.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Paid, accrued and claimed platform/creator/liquidity fees not reconciled. Creator sales are not fee receipts.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/creator-cash-flow.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q11a", "name": "Observed execution size.", "definition": "Show actual buy and sell quote-size distributions, largest successful sells and gaps between trades. Observed past trades are not a quote for the next order.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show actual buy and sell quote-size distributions, largest successful sells and gaps between trades. Observed past trades are not a quote for the next order.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/execution-sizes.json", "data/analysis/selected-pool-trade-gaps.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/selected-pool-trade-gaps.sql" ], "resultScope": "USDC execution-size distributions measured; trade gaps supplied only for five selected pools.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; USDC execution-size distributions measured; trade gaps supplied only for five selected pools.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/execution-sizes.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/selected-pool-trade-gaps.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q11b", "name": "Standard-size quote tests.", "definition": "At fixed historical blocks, test buys of 100, 1,000 and 10,000 USDC. Test sales of token quantities worth those amounts at the same time-aligned reference price. Show output, price impact versus the stated reference, fees and unavailable quotes. These are modelled or read-only quotes; submit no trades.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "At fixed historical blocks, test buys of 100, 1,000 and 10,000 USDC. Test sales of token quantities worth those amounts at the same time-aligned reference price. Show output, price impact versus the stated reference, fees and unavailable quotes. These are modelled or read-only quotes; submit no trades.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Historical per-pool state, dynamic fee and hook behavior not reproduced; volume does not establish depth.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Historical per-pool state, dynamic fee and hook behavior not reproduced; volume does not establish depth.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q11c", "name": "Depth within a stated price impact.", "definition": "Estimate executable buy/sell size before 1%, 5% and 10% adverse price movement, where the pool math and hook behavior can be reproduced. Do not sum isolated pool capacities into a claim about an executable route.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Estimate executable buy/sell size before 1%, 5% and 10% adverse price movement, where the pool math and hook behavior can be reproduced. Do not sum isolated pool capacities into a claim about an executable route.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Historical per-pool state, dynamic fee and hook behavior not reproduced; volume does not establish depth.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Historical per-pool state, dynamic fee and hook behavior not reproduced; volume does not establish depth.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q11d", "name": "Liquidity change.", "definition": "Show historical per-pool depth changes and validated additions/removals beside price and turnover. Keep shared PoolManager balances out of token-specific liquidity totals unless per-pool ownership is established.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show historical per-pool depth changes and validated additions/removals beside price and turnover. Keep shared PoolManager balances out of token-specific liquidity totals unless per-pool ownership is established.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Historical per-pool state, dynamic fee and hook behavior not reproduced; volume does not establish depth.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Historical per-pool state, dynamic fee and hook behavior not reproduced; volume does not establish depth.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/selected-pool-price-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q12a", "name": "Buyer and seller breadth.", "definition": "Show distinct buyer and seller addresses, overlap, quote turnover per buyer, and the share from repeat buyers within each token's observed period.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show distinct buyer and seller addresses, overlap, quote turnover per buyer, and the share from repeat buyers within each token's observed period.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth.json", "data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth-scope.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Address counts cover all captured quote assets per base token; value fields cover USDC quotes only. Repeat status uses all quotes. Counts across tokens overlap; see field-scope notes before forming per-buyer ratios.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Address counts cover all captured quote assets per base token; value fields cover USDC quotes only. Repeat status uses all quotes. Counts across tokens overlap; see field-scope notes before forming per-buyer ratios.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth.csv.gz", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth-scope.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q12b", "name": "Directional activity.", "definition": "For a named token/quote pair, show (buy quote turnover minus sell quote turnover) divided by their sum, alongside both raw amounts. Classify from validated trader intent or direct pair executions, with the chosen meaning stated. A pool buys whenever someone sells; the ratio is not chain-wide net investment.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For a named token/quote pair, show (buy quote turnover minus sell quote turnover) divided by their sum, alongside both raw amounts. Classify from validated trader intent or direct pair executions, with the chosen meaning stated. A pool buys whenever someone sells; the ratio is not chain-wide net investment.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth.json", "data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth-scope.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Directional value ratio uses USDC-quoted buys and sells only; it is null when their sum is zero. It does not measure changes in token holdings.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Directional value ratio uses USDC-quoted buys and sells only; it is null when their sum is zero. It does not measure changes in token holdings.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth.csv.gz", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/buyer-seller-breadth-scope.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q12c", "name": "Holder change and concentration.", "definition": "Reconstruct balances at equal token ages or a shared cutoff using complete initial supply and transfers. Show positive-balance address counts, new and exited holder addresses, top-address shares and known pool/contract balances separately.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Reconstruct balances at equal token ages or a shared cutoff using complete initial supply and transfers. Show positive-balance address counts, new and exited holder addresses, top-address shares and known pool/contract balances separately.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q12d", "name": "Quantity retained by purchase cohorts.", "definition": "With complete inventory, measure how much of each cohort's bought quantity remains at 15 or 60 minutes, with sales and transfers separated. Do not infer opening balances from net flow alone.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "With complete inventory, measure how much of each cohort's bought quantity remains at 15 or 60 minutes, with sales and transfers separated. Do not infer opening balances from net flow alone.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q13a", "name": "Boundary inflow and outflow.", "definition": "Show gross inbound, gross outbound and net flow for each verified bridge or other defined boundary. Deduplicate overlapping mint/bridge records. Do not combine categories until their overlap is resolved.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show gross inbound, gross outbound and net flow for each verified bridge or other defined boundary. Deduplicate overlapping mint/bridge records. Do not combine categories until their overlap is resolved.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Bridge/boundary mappings and native/ERC-20 overlap not resolved. Gross transfers remain separate views.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Bridge/boundary mappings and native/ERC-20 overlap not resolved. Gross transfers remain separate views.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q13b", "name": "Funded-address conversion.", "definition": "For each address, anchor once at its first observed positive incoming USDC receipt in the relevant view, require no earlier observed trade, and measure a first subsequent trade within 15 or 60 minutes. Do not count an address again for later receipts. Show median time among converters and non-converter counts. Label ordinary receipts separately from verified inbound bridge receipts; their cohorts can overlap and must not be summed. This does not establish that the receipt funded that trade.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For each address, anchor once at its first observed positive incoming USDC receipt in the relevant view, require no earlier observed trade, and measure a first subsequent trade within 15 or 60 minutes. Do not count an address again for later receipts. Show median time among converters and non-converter counts. Label ordinary receipts separately from verified inbound bridge receipts; their cohorts can overlap and must not be summed. This does not establish that the receipt funded that trade.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Captured transfer aggregates do not supply validated complete address-level receipt cohorts or funding paths. No conversion/funder rank inferred.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Captured transfer aggregates do not supply validated complete address-level receipt cohorts or funding paths. No conversion/funder rank inferred.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q13c", "name": "Funds remaining with recipients.", "definition": "Where opening and cutoff balances plus intervening flows are complete, show recipients' USDC balance changes and observed onward transfers. A move to another Arc address has not necessarily left Arc. Do not claim to track particular dollars through mixed balances.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Where opening and cutoff balances plus intervening flows are complete, show recipients' USDC balance changes and observed onward transfers. A move to another Arc address has not necessarily left Arc. Do not claim to track particular dollars through mixed balances.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q13d", "name": "Funding-source concentration.", "definition": "Show the largest direct observed senders into the trader-address set and their shares of measured incoming USDC. Mark known bridges, pools and services only with evidence. Shared senders do not prove common ownership.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show the largest direct observed senders into the trader-address set and their shares of measured incoming USDC. Mark known bridges, pools and services only with evidence. Shared senders do not prove common ownership.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Captured transfer aggregates do not supply validated complete address-level receipt cohorts or funding paths. No conversion/funder rank inferred.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Captured transfer aggregates do not supply validated complete address-level receipt cohorts or funding paths. No conversion/funder rank inferred.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q14a", "name": "Fast-repeat share.", "definition": "Measure same-address successive trader transactions within one block and within 1, 5 or 30 seconds where timestamp precision supports it. Report flagged address, transaction and turnover shares. Do not invent sub-second timing from block timestamps.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Measure same-address successive trader transactions within one block and within 1, 5 or 30 seconds where timestamp precision supports it. Report flagged address, transaction and turnover shares. Do not invent sub-second timing from block timestamps.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/fast-repeat-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Successive address transactions, one-second timestamps; same-block and 1/5/30-second thresholds.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Successive address transactions, one-second timestamps; same-block and 1/5/30-second thresholds.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/fast-repeat-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q14b", "name": "Matched short cycles.", "definition": "For validated address/token changes, measure buy-then-sell sequences within 30 seconds, 1 minute and 5 minutes, their matched quantities and supported quote cash flows. Do not pair the same quantity twice. Treat routed transactions separately.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For validated address/token changes, measure buy-then-sell sequences within 30 seconds, 1 minute and 5 minutes, their matched quantities and supported quote cash flows. Do not pair the same quantity twice. Treat routed transactions separately.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Complete opening balances, initial allocations, transfers and acquisition costs have not passed validation; no inventory or profit claim.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/observed-exits-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q14c", "name": "Pattern overlap and sensitivity.", "definition": "Show intersections and unions of indicators; never add overlapping percentages. Recalculate key totals excluding each defined set while retaining the unfiltered headline. Vary thresholds and report whether the conclusion changes.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show intersections and unions of indicators; never add overlapping percentages. Recalculate key totals excluding each defined set while retaining the unfiltered headline. Vary thresholds and report whether the conclusion changes.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/fast-repeat-summary.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Nested timing-threshold exclusions supplied; matched cycles not available, so no cross-pattern union claimed.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Nested timing-threshold exclusions supplied; matched cycles not available, so no cross-pattern union claimed.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/fast-repeat-summary.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q15a", "name": "Contract-use conversion.", "definition": "Among successful deployments with a full 60-minute horizon, show the share receiving a later successful call whose verified transaction sender differs from the deployment transaction's sender. Exclude the deployment transaction and setup-only calls where they can be identified. Caller-contract counts and transaction-sender counts remain separate. A different sender address does not prove an independent user.", "state": "unavailable", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Among successful deployments with a full 60-minute horizon, show the share receiving a later successful call whose verified transaction sender differs from the deployment transaction's sender. Exclude the deployment transaction and setup-only calls where they can be identified. Caller-contract counts and transaction-sender counts remain separate. A different sender address does not prove an independent user.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/deployment-common.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/deployment-common.sql" ], "resultScope": "Creation traces lack resulting addresses; later address-specific use cannot be joined.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Creation traces lack resulting addresses; later address-specific use cannot be joined.", "eligibleCounts": null, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/deployment-common.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q15b", "name": "Deployment mix.", "definition": "Split verified token, pool, trading helper and other contract deployments. Keep unknown types visible; do not infer a contract type from its name alone. Show events and unique addresses separately where they differ.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Split verified token, pool, trading helper and other contract deployments. Keep unknown types visible; do not infer a contract type from its name alone. Show events and unique addresses separately where they differ.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/deployment-mix.json", "data/analysis/deployment-common.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/deployment-mix.sql", "queries/local/deployment-common.sql" ], "resultScope": "Internal creation traces and mapped-launch transaction split only; no full token/pool/helper type count.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Internal creation traces and mapped-launch transaction split only; no full token/pool/helper type count.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/deployment-mix.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/deployment-common.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q15c", "name": "Chain activity mix.", "definition": "Give transactions and gas use for trade-only, launch-only, both and neither groups; show unknown classification where needed. A transaction containing a launch and swap belongs in the \u201cboth\u201d group, counted once.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Give transactions and gas use for trade-only, launch-only, both and neither groups; show unknown classification where needed. A transaction containing a launch and swap belongs in the \u201cboth\u201d group, counted once.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/chain-activity-mix.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/chain-activity-mix.sql" ], "resultScope": "Exclusive transaction groups; unidentified includes protocols outside the captured families.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Exclusive transaction groups; unidentified includes protocols outside the captured families.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/chain-activity-mix.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q15d", "name": "Peak-period execution.", "definition": "Compare transaction fees and classified trading-failure rates across equal-length busy and quieter periods. Define periods from transaction load before viewing fee/failure outcomes. This establishes an association, not a congestion cause.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Compare transaction fees and classified trading-failure rates across equal-length busy and quieter periods. Define periods from transaction load before viewing fee/failure outcomes. This establishes an association, not a congestion cause.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/busy-quiet-fees.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Busy/quiet full hours chosen by transaction count before fee comparison; classified trading failures unavailable.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Busy/quiet full hours chosen by transaction count before fee comparison; classified trading failures unavailable.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/busy-quiet-fees.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q16a", "name": "Coverage strip.", "definition": "Show each source's first/last covered block and time, indexed lag at capture, detected gaps, duplicate count and attribution coverage. Use chain/block evidence for completeness checks; sparse event tables alone cannot prove gaps.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show each source's first/last covered block and time, indexed lag at capture, detected gaps, duplicate count and attribution coverage. Use chain/block evidence for completeness checks; sparse event tables alone cannot prove gaps.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/final-audit.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Common blocks reconcile; wider gaps and moving Trading floor are explicit; full indexing completeness not established.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Common blocks reconcile; wider gaps and moving Trading floor are explicit; full indexing completeness not established.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/final-audit.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q16b", "name": "Decode coverage.", "definition": "For a defined set of known launch or swap event candidates, report the share successfully decoded and matched. State that the denominator covers known candidate types, not every possible Arc protocol.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "For a defined set of known launch or swap event candidates, report the share successfully decoded and matched. State that the denominator covers known candidate types, not every possible Arc protocol.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/final-audit.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Known event sets and receipt samples only; one-minute raw/cube mismatch retained.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Known event sets and receipt samples only; one-minute raw/cube mismatch retained.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/final-audit.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q16c", "name": "Quote and identity coverage.", "definition": "Show raw swap counts, supported-quote counts, unpriced counts and unknown-address counts. Where amounts are measurable for the unknown-address group, include their turnover share too.", "state": "measured", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Show raw swap counts, supported-quote counts, unpriced counts and unknown-address counts. Where amounts are measurable for the unknown-address group, include their turnover share too.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/trading-overview.json", "data/analysis/cube-base-missing.json", "data/analysis/address-identity-audit.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/trading-overview.sql", "queries/local/cube-base-missing.sql", "queries/local/address-identity-audit.sql" ], "resultScope": "USDC support, missing base quantities, positive reference-USD and trader identity counts explicit.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; USDC support, missing base quantities, positive reference-USD and trader identity counts explicit.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/trading-overview.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/cube-base-missing.csv", "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/address-identity-audit.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q16d", "name": "Ranking scope.", "definition": "If relevant platform records or prices are missing, label rankings as observed/attributed results. A lower bound on one platform's total does not establish its true rank. Do not invent an upper bound for unpriced or unknown activity.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "If relevant platform records or prices are missing, label rankings as observed/attributed results. A lower bound on one platform's total does not establish its true rank. Do not invent an upper bound for unpriced or unknown activity.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/origin-turnover.json" ], "queryFamily": [ "queries/local/origin-turnover.sql" ], "resultScope": "Ranking covers mapped observed sets; unknown factories and unparsed curve trades can change full-platform ranks.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Ranking covers mapped observed sets; unknown factories and unparsed curve trades can change full-platform ranks.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/origin-turnover.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." }, { "id": "Q16e", "name": "Claim audit status.", "definition": "Attach confidence, saved evidence and outstanding limits to each headline. Separate recalculation, API agreement and direct chain record checks; do not claim source independence that has not been established.", "state": "partial", "source": "Trading.Trades for every trade-derived quantity; raw events, calls, transactions, transfers for supporting facts", "occurrenceKey": "Saved Trading group ID with preserved copies; raw launch uses block hash + transaction hash + LogHeader_Index; transfers add call context.", "orderingFields": "verified block height, transaction position; unresolved event order excluded from within-transaction paths", "period": "2026-09-16T06:19:10Z/2026-09-16T14:00:00Z for trade comparisons; stated wider source view separately", "numeratorAndDenominator": "Attach confidence, saved evidence and outstanding limits to each headline. Separate recalculation, API agreement and direct chain record checks; do not claim source independence that has not been established.", "missingRule": "Unavailable evidence remains unknown; full-horizon denominators only; zero denominator yields null", "resultFile": [ "data/analysis/final-audit.json" ], "queryFamily": [], "resultScope": "Saved-count and join checks pass; three reference-USD and three sub-cent USDC quantity comparisons differ and remain unresolved.", "missingDataRule": "Unknown stays unknown; Saved-count and join checks pass; three reference-USD and three sub-cent USDC quantity comparisons differ and remain unresolved.", "eligibleCounts": { "reference": "Exact denominators are fields in the linked results; no inferred all-chain denominator" }, "articleSection": "research-appendix", "downloads": [ "/investigations/arc-blockchain-launch-trading/data/analysis/final-audit.csv" ], "resultNote": "Linked files may support only a limit; unavailable metrics remain unavailable." } ] }